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Guess what Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada have in common

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I’m seeing a rise in “Trump’s gonna win” fear, this past week. Both in here, in my Facebook feed, and in more than a few corners of liberal/progressive-leaning punditry.

The argument seems to go like this. Biden’s up +8 to +10 in the polls. So was Hillary. She lost to Trump in the end. So will Biden! Polls are totally meaningless! 

Better diarists and commenters than I have taken the time to unpack and refute the above thought-train. Better diarists and commenters than I have taken the time to walk us through why history never repeats itself that precisely, and why Election 2020 is quite different than Election 2016.

A quick summary of most of the main differences. 2020 Incumbent Trump defending a horrible job performance, vs 2016 Candidate Trump promising everything to everyone in the future tense. Joe Biden’s approval rating being much higher than Hillary Clinton’s; the “I just don’t like her” factor taken off the table. (Sadly the misogyny too, impossible to quantify but it was somewhere medium-high in the mix of what happened and why.) The horrible pandemic. The equally horrible job losses. Protests and counter-protesters, the latter coming from far-right corners of America and bringing assault weapons, egged on by Trump himself. The massive “Strongly Disapprove” antipathy that undergirds the electoral trouble facing Trump as he seeks reelection. The intense feelings of alarm and dread that accompany the aforementioned. The far fewer Undecided Voters this time around. People have self-sorted by now, pretty much, and have made up their minds already, more so than in 2016. 

All of that. It really is different this time. 

But even putting that aside… Let’s remember that the US Election System is not federal. It’s 50 states each conducting and overseeing their own election processes. And here’s the point I want to make.

Trump may be able to pull major electoral shenanigans in the battleground states led by Republican governors. Florida especially. But there are four (4) battleground states that were Republican-governed in 2016 and are Democrat-governed today in 2020. Michigan… Wisconsin… North Carolina… and Nevada.

(Diary update:  Commenter HughJimBasile below pointed out the power of each state’s Secretary of State, and how it’ll matter which SoS positions are held by a Republican vs a Democrat. Of the four states I listed above that now have Democratic governors, the three bigger ones (MI, WI, NC) all also have Democratic Secretaries of State. In addition, Arizona has a Democratic Secretary of State overseeing their election process as well, even though their governor is GOP. Whew!)

This matters significantly. If Democrats have a relatively fair election process in just those four states… and we likely will… and if we win in those four states, plus Pennsylvania which is all but guaranteed to go for Joe Biden this time around… we get the following map (image below) on Election Night. 294 to 244. 

294to244.jpg

That’s even if we lose EVERY Republican-governed battleground state. I feel optimistic about Florida despite DeSantis. They can steal an election if their candidate is down by 2 points, but it’s harder to steal it if their candidate is down by 6 points. 

North Carolina looks like a real tossup. But Joe Biden would still win the Electoral 270 he needs, even if he loses North Carolina *and* Florida. That victory would be a perilously close one, though: 279 to 259. 

My point here is…. to those expressing fearful predictions that we’re doomed: if you’re going to argue that Biden will lose the election, please name the battleground states with *Democratic* governors where you still think Biden will lose. Name the path, electorally, by which you think defeat and doom are coming. Show your work.

Joe Biden is in the strongest polling position of any Democratic challenger/non-incumbent in more than half a century. Stronger than either Clinton (‘92 or ‘16). Stronger than his former boss, President Obama, in ‘08.

And… Donald Trump is in the weakest for a GOP incumbent.

2020 is not 2016. Not to say “We’ve got this” in a flippant way, but to say Democratic victory is extremely likely if everyone just stays as motivated and as decided and as focused as we already ARE.

I actually think Biden’s going to win more than 300 Electoral Votes. Florida is very likely, and Ohio is in play (and its governor Mike DeWine seems less pro-Trump and less corruption-friendly than most of his GOP governor peers). We can win — and we can win strongly and decisively. I believe it’ll happen.

Thanks for reading. 


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