I cannot believe I’m promoting a RedState diary, except, well, here I go. Because it’s that good, for those who appreciate geeking out Nate-Silver-style on what’s happening to our adversaries. In summary, this diary by RedState’s Dan McLaughlin lays out the road map for Ted Cruz as he tries to surge toward new front-runner status. It’s a daunting one.
As has been well documented and reported all over, the GOP made a deliberate effort to front-load their 2016 primary calendar and avoid a long drawn-out fight. Perhaps the Clinton-Obama struggle of Spring 2008 scared them a little? For whatever reason, the combo of calendar and inconsistent delegate rules (proportional along statewide results vs winner-take-all) mean that the GOP voters in blue states might turn out to have more influence on the contest than GOP voters in red states. And if those blue-state GOP voters are more inclined toward a moderate candidate (think New York Republicans vs Oklahoma Republicans), it might help a more moderate candidate.
An interesting question there is, would blue state Republicans see Trump as more moderate than Cruz? Trump is not as anti-abortion, not as theocratic. He’s now seen as a Muslim-bashing demagogue, though. Hard to know. But Cruz is rising in the polls, and just might become the new front runner in the next few weeks.
Anyway please do take a look at the article. Again I don’t think I have ever recommended a RedState piece before, but, objectively speaking, Dan M did a fine job with it; it helps explain and clarify much about how the GOP primary calendar and process, its wheels and pulleys, actually operate. It’s well worth a read if you’re following the GOP contest/shitshow with interest.