OK, enough of this so-called conventional wisdom in which “no-way, no-how can Donald Trump ever actually win the GOP nomination.” It’s getting real, people. Less than 2 months out from Iowa and the CNN/ORC brand new poll result tells the tale — Trump stands alone at 36%.
A cluster of runners up in the teens: Cruz 16%, Carson 14%, Rubio 12%.
Another cluster way down low, including Jeb at only 3%. That’s not a typo.
Fuller results here in the released PDF. Comparing Dec 1 to Oct 17, we have the following:
Trump 36% (up from 27%)
Cruz 16% (up sharply from 4%)
Carson 14% (down from 22%)
Rubio 12% (up from 8%)
Then all the rest are between 0% and 4%. Christie holds steady at 4%; Bush falls to 3% (from 8%); Fiorina 3%, Huckabee 2%, Kasich 2%, Paul 1%, the rest each round down to 0%.
Other info from the PDF — the GOP base seems a bit more concerned with terrorism and foreign policy now, and less concerned over healthcare. They think Trump is by far the best candidate on economy, budget.. and fighting ISIS. But 47% of them think a mass deportation (a la Trump) would hurt, not help, our economy. A much smaller figure in the 20s, said they think a Trumpian mass deportation would help our economy. So there’s that.
Time is racing along. December is historically the month when, if it’s gonna change, change starts now. Kerry began to rise from the near-dead in December 2003. McCain same thing, December 2007. Obama also began to rise in December 2007, though it was his Iowa victory that really took things to the next level for his campaign. But still the point — if the GOP nominee is going to be a non-Trump, well, when and how will that actually start to happen? It is looking like Cruz and Rubio are the two rising alternatives. Cruz in particular, as the data shows, has shot up more dramatically in recent weeks. We’ll see.
Interesting side note on our fears of GOP big money. Jeb Bush’s backers have flushed between $35M and $45M (numbers vary) down the drain, only to see him land at 3% here. Scott Walker’s backers flushed several million down the drain, same thing, with an earlier and faster crash/burn/exit. Trump, meanwhile, is in the very strong lead — and he has spent almost nothing in comparison.
Maybe other polls will tell a more complex story, but this one is quite clear: Trump looks stronger than ever here. The establishment GOP might be transitioning from panicked anxiety to grim resignation on this one.