CNN has a newly released poll taken Aug 15-18, and its results are lining up with a few other recent polls. State of the race at this point is Biden solidifying and slightly widening his lead; Sanders and Warren tied for 2nd; and Harris dropping down to near-Buttigieg level.
Specifically:
Biden 29% (+7 from 22% in late June)
Sanders 15% (+1 from 14%)
Warren 14% (-1 from 15%)
Harris 5% (-12 from 17%)
Details on the poll can be found here. Quote, “The study was conducted for CNN via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews wereconducted from August 15-18, 2019 among a sample of 1,001 respondents. The landline total respondents were351 and there were 650 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.7 at the 95% confidence level. The design effect is 1.46.”
This new CNN poll is fairly consistent with an online poll released today by Morning Consult and diaried here. That one has Biden 32%, Sanders 20%, Warren 13%, Steyer(!) 7%, and Harris 6%. Note, in that poll Biden didn’t rise in support, but stayed steady in the low 30s.
What’s most striking to me here is not only Harris’ apparent collapse, but that in the CNN poll, Sanders + Warren = 29%, and Biden = 29%. Exactly. Similarly in the Morning Consult Poll, 20 + 13 (S & W support) is pretty much equal to Biden support at 32.
I sincerely hope that Sanders and Warren continue their collegial tag-team approach to this primary contest. Maybe they will recognize a need to point out some differences, but if they can do it without attacking each other, then there is a significant chance that they can consolidate much of their support if things tilt one way or another (Sanders vs Warren) over the winter into spring, when it really matters.
Also we do need to prepare for the increasingly distinct possibility that Joe Biden is indeed our nominee.