First off, if I could helicopter one candidate directly into the US presidency next January, it would currently be Elizabeth Warren. Biden’s not my first choice.
But the fear I’m reading in here based on last night’s debate strikes me as hyperreactive and histrionic.
Let’s imagine a scenario in which Joe Biden comes in 3rd in Iowa, 2nd in NH, 1st in SC, and dominant on Super Tuesday… and let’s imagine Biden goes on to win the Democratic Nomination.
It’s not the most unrealistic scenario. There are many other realistic scenarios that could have Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg winning the nomination. (Bernie Sanders is currently a longer shot, and Kamala Harris doesn’t currently seem able to get close to winning anywhere.)
So, yes, Joe Biden is old verging on elderly. And he sometimes comes across as such, when he speaks. And he often, quite often indeed, makes gaffes.
I want to recap what the eventual 2020 Presidential Election comes down to, based on our electoral system. Because in a hypothetical Biden vs Trump contest, most US states’ electoral votes are pretty much predictable and wrapped up and spoken for already, and it doesn’t much matter what you or I think if we live anywhere but the following:
Florida. Michigan. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Arizona.
That’s it.
And here would be the choice facing the voters in those 5 states, on Election Day 2020:
(1) BIDEN: Old. Experienced. Democrat, with a Dem/Moderate record and reputation. Obama’s VP for 8 years. Knows a lot. Lots of establishment people like him. Nice guy all in all. But he makes constant gaffes, and he seems a bit mentally unfocused and too old for this.
(2) TRUMP: Old also. Mentally erratic and unfocused also. Corrupt on so many levels, and even guilty of crimes. Narcissistic. Mean, even sociopathic. Hurtful. Bigoted. Damage-causing.
Further… people in Florida and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and so on already know these two candidates quite well. Joe Biden is getting old, and he makes gaffes? They know this.
In particular, most voters across America have made up their minds on Trump at this point, his dis/approval rating is remarkably stable, and (for him) it isn’t good.
I understand the anxiety when we see Biden not doing so great on the debate stage. I just think the Trump presidency has rendered the United States of America’s very political system and structure into a churning, collapsing national emergency... and that many American voters recognize it as such. This is not normal circumstances.
In the booth… in Florida… they will vote for Joe Biden in a Biden vs Trump contest.
In the booth… in Michigan, in Wisconsin… they will vote for Joe Biden in a Biden vs Trump contest.
In the booth… in Pennsylvania… they will vote for Joe Biden in a Biden vs Trump contest.
In the booth… in Arizona… they will vote for Joe Biden in a Biden vs Trump contest.
I’m still voting for Elizabeth Warren. I just think the “OMG Biden is a doddering elderly senile disaster” comments are exaggerated… and they distort the reality of what this election will come down to. Which states’ votes are the deciding ones, and what those voters will be thinking.
Joe Biden can and would defeat Donald Trump, head to head.
Thanks for reading.