Hi all. I’m not a Bernie Sanders supporter; I was leaning Harris before she sank, then leaning Warren but now she seems to be sinking as well.
But I want to write a diary about my own “Joe Biden is more electable than Bernie Sanders” assumptions. And about what the actual, though limited, data is saying at this point. Biden’s path to the nomination seems to be weakening as Sanders’ path seems to be getting stronger.
In addition to polling itself, it can be interesting to follow the overall movement at the online betting sites. There’s some idiocy in the mix (e.g. No, there is NOT a 4% chance Hillary will be the nominee). But the breakout of predictions for the top few candidates always seems interesting and worth a comparison against my own gut feel of likelihood. These sites are hyper-reactive to hype itself, and to the news cycles, but here is where they are at the moment (and it changes daily):
- Sanders 41.3%
- Biden 22.7%
- Bloomberg 17.9%
- Buttigieg 14.3%
- Warren 8.5%
My thoughts:
- Biden’s fortunes will probably rise some. His odds are not nearly as low as 22.7%. I’d say it’s more like 45% Sanders, 45% Biden.
- Bloomberg’s chances are more like 5%; early voting is already happening in some Super Tuesday states, and he’s just not polling high enough to upend everything.
- Warren’s and Buttigieg’s are near zero unless remarkable changes happen in NH, NV and SC.
- In other words, unless something very unusual happens (and it well might), I now predict a solid Sanders vs Biden contest from here on out.
So let’s look at the question of which nominee can do better against Trump.
And in doing so, let’s focus not on national polling, but on the top 5 battleground states. We pretty much know how most US states will vote in November, blue or red. Unless Trump implodes or our nominee implodes, it’s all going to come down to what happens in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
One difference between 2016 and 2020 is that most voters are now familiar with Trump, familiar with Biden… and they are familiar with Sanders. There is not much “I don’t know, who’s that?” when pollsters ask for voters’ opinions.
So let’s take a look at the data. Section titles are hyperlinked to data on RealClearPolitics.
A poll taken last month by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) showed Biden leading Trump by just 2 points… and Sanders leading Trump by 6 points. Is Sanders stronger? Well.. a poll taken in December by Mason Dixon had Biden leading Trump by 2 points… and Sanders losing to Trump by 5 points. So we need more data. But we cannot say at the moment, based on the data, that Biden is more likely than Sanders to defeat Trump in Florida. Or vice versa.
Verdict: Weak data, call it a tie at this point.
Pennsylvania: (20 Electoral Votes)
Outdated polling — just 3 polls, taken in Nov and Oct and May. (May is particularly outdated at this point.) But they show Biden with an average 7 point lead over Trump. And Sanders with an average 3.7 point lead over Trump.
Verdict: Weak data, but Biden appears 3 to 4 points stronger and more assured of a victory over Trump. Both candidates appear able to defeat Trump, though. Again, we need more current data.
Michigan: (16 Electoral Votes)
A better data set here. Two January polls and two from late October. And they show Biden averaging a 6.5 point lead over Trump, and Sanders averaging a 6.7 point lead over Trump.
Verdict: Sanders or Biden can defeat Trump handily in Michigan.
An ok but not great set of data: polls taken in Jan, Dec, and two in Oct. They show Biden averaging just 0.3 points ahead of Trump.. in other words, a near-exact tie. They show Sanders losing to Trump by an average of 5 points.
Verdict: Could use more data, but it appears Biden is 5 points stronger than Sanders in Arizona.
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
Limited data, two January polls and one October. They indicate Biden ahead of Trump with an average of 3.7 points, and Sanders narrowly ahead of Trump with an average of 2.0 points.
Verdict: Could use more data, but it appears Biden is 1.7 points stronger than Sanders in Wisconsin.
So, taken together, the results do currently show Biden a few points stronger than Sanders in the 2020 battleground states. But the data is very limited and you can’t really hang your hat on it either way (arguing that only Biden can defeat Trump, or arguing that the polling doesn’t reflect Sanders’ current rise and that he can definitely defeat Trump).
We will need more data in the coming Spring and Summer and Fall. All the more so since Sanders was not sharing potential front-runner status with Biden when many of these 2019 polls were taken. But at this time, it doesn’t appear to me at all that Biden is a knockout against Trump, and it doesn’t appear to me at all that Sanders is an electoral disaster waiting to happen. They actually seem quite closely matched, in these battleground states where it matters.
I’m kinda good and kinda jittery either way. Closing with a vital reminder from commenter Red Dan:
[Our candidates are] not the ones doing the defeating of Trump.
We are.
Organize, Convince, Advocate, Vote.
Peace.